Today's Forecast Sunny. Hi 75 Never Windy
Volume 1, November 2008 Edition
Commentary and Perspective from one of
America's most unique small town areas, edited by Preston Westmoreland of
Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty.
Was there Really a UFO Crash in Cave Creek?
Carefree Times gets a taste of the X-Files
Upper reaches of the Go John Mine (grey area) were supposedly
the place that locals watched the U.S Government recover the crashed saucer
along Carefree Highway
A Carefreetimes.com exclusive by Preston Westmoreland
Don't think that we're losing it here at the
Carefree Times and watching too many X-Files, but this story has been
kicking around since October of 1947 and always makes a good Halloween tale.
. . . Several years ago, a grizzled miner came up to me one night in
Cave Creek, after I emceed a "Meet the Candidates" forum, and what he said shocked me. .I only knew this man as "Pete the
Miner" who worked the famous Mistress Mine near Seven Springs. "You're
not going to believe this," he said, "but a friend of mine watched some
government agents back in the late 1940's, recover and truck away wreckage
of what looked like a flying saucer. He told me to look it up in
the book by Timothy Good "Above Top Secret." Sure enough, on
page 394, there it was, a description of a UFO crash just south of the present-day Carefree
Highway. So the story goes, the Cave Creek landfill was placed there to
cover the site. The landfill is closed now.
Debris along with dirt were trucked down to be placed in the
Dreamy Draw Dam along Northern Avenue, a dam that many experts say was never
necessary, and finally, Cave Creek Road was "bent" or aligned further to the
east. I was equally astonished when I told then Phoenix
city-councilwoman Francis Barwood about this and she decided to investigate.
She called me soon afterwards to tell me that many of the records involving
whatever had happened were no longer available or had been destroyed!
There were markings on the old quadrangle map that showed the alignment for
Cave Creek Road moved, an alignment that would have taken it toward the
crash site. Decide for yourself, here's a link to a rare interview done by Mufon,
with the last surviving witness, Paradise Valley businessman and pilot Selmon Graves, who has since passed
away. As a young man, he was the one sitting by the Go John Mine, watching
what must have been an incredible sight. Click on the box below to launch the
video. Please be patient while it loads"
What's the significance of this Carefree home and who lived there
(scroll down for answer)
Moving to the Desert? Would you know which
cactus can tell you direction? A quick and easy way to get help, what
poisonous creatures can be found with a black light? Take the desert
survival quiz and see highlights of the program Stay Alive-A Guide to
Survival in the Desert Southwest. Taped in the Carefree area
Pardon me, While I blow my own horn!Tempe, Az-What a thrill it was to recently be
inducted into the Arizona Broadcaster's Hall of Fame. At a recent dinner at Marriott's resort at the Buttes, I was
introduced by my long-time KTAR friend and host, Pat Mahon (right), who played the
most famous blooper we did together of all. (look below for a link to hear this blooper "how did you learn about sex."
It's a classic. Pat explained to the audience how my radio career at KTAR went 26 years, lasted through 4 companies, 3 buildings, 9 general
managers and 8 program directors. I am very proud of the fact that when I
left and entered real estate, I was still number one in the afternoons in
the Phoenix market. I was able to interview over 27,000 guests,
including Senator John McCain over 35 times and for every office he ran for
in the state. The Senator and Cindy even co-hosted with me for a week
in New Orleans at the Republican Convention. One of the highlights of
my radio career was to fly with the Blue Angels, spend the day underwater on
a nuclear sub, and land on an aircraft carrier. NOW, back to the real
work, and real estate! Here's that link to the best blooper, it will play in
Greetings again to all our
returning visitors and friends. What a quick entry into
"the season" we had the first weekend of November! Empty streets were
replaced by thousands coming out to Carefree and Cave Creek for all the
special activities. Cave Creek celebrated "Old West Days" with
scores of activities like Bull Riding and tours of the top ten art
galleries. Carefree's multi-million-dollar town center was
transformed again for the popular Wines and Arts and Crafts Festival
that can draw 20,000, featuring performances by our friend Esteban, and
just south of Carefree, at the El Pedgregal Marketplace, designed to
look like a Moroccan fort, jazz singer Alice Tatum and her group
performed a Sunday afternoon concert along with wine tasting and other
activities. Just a taste of why you should include a visit this
season to our wonderful community.
What's the significance of
this house and who lived there?
One of the most stunning homes in Carefree was also one of the first.
This location, bridging a small wash along Stagecoach Pass, was the
location for K.T. Palmer's home, the co-founder of Carefree and is
within 1/4 mile of Tom Darlington's first house, featured last month.
|Maricopa County Active Listings:
|Maricopa County Actives Last mo.
|Carefree Active Homes (last mo
|Carefree Homes Under Contract
|Cave Creek Active Homes
|Cave Creek Homes Under Contract
|Scottsdale Zip Code 85262 Actives
|Scottsdale Zip 85262 Under Contract
|Paradise Valley Active Listings
|Paradise Valley Under Contract
|Paradise Valley Homes over $10 mil 15
|Most Expensive P.V. Home
|Homes sold in
the last 30 days/1 year ago: Carefree-1/3, Cave Creek 29/27 Scottsdale
zip 85262- 29/32, Paradise Valley 10/29
Carefree foreclosure/short sales 8
Cave Creek foreclosures/short sales 114
Bubble-trouble. . ..could it be true that prices in the Phoenix area have
slid back to what they were in 2004?Carefee/Cave Creek by Preston Westmoreland
Believe it. It's true, according to real estate guru R.L
Brown and his respected studies. And this is not what we meant when we say
the "good old days." Keep in mind that this is not for all areas, but for many.
There are exceptions. I know a couple who just sold their home at a North
Scottsdale subdivision called Sincuidados, for around $ 900,000. They purchased
it for about $640,000 in 2006, , but in this market drummed down by 46% of
all sales now bank-owned and short sales, they got lucky. Statistics below
reveal an astonishing spike in the number of Cave Creek properties in trouble.
Last month, there were 64, now 114. These include short sales, foreclosures, and
probate properties. Carefree remains strong with very few sellers in bank
Everything that sells today is about
price. You must have your home in the top 1 or 2 of best neighborhood
buys, or it will just sit there. Don't expect to get over the appraised
price Sellers who don't have to sell or are just hanging their house out on the
market to see what happens, ought to consider taking them off for right now. It
is just adding to the extreme glut of unsold properties, that still is not
RL Brown views
the current real
noted real estate expert RL Brown, he anticipates new-home market-wide median
prices could settle in the range of +-$195,000, not too far off the present
level. While it is certainly a guess, he anticipates the continued inventory
pressures on the resale market will push the median price for resale homes
into the range of perhaps $145,000-$165,000. It could realistically be
driven by banks unloading large inventories of repossessed properties under
serious pressure from regulators and stockholders.
means new-home price stability may be just around the corner while resale
prices will very likely continue to fall. A sign that the market has
bottomed for either new or resale homes or both will be found in the data re
prices that we examine over the next few months.
Resale homes are another matter, but if we use resale market velocity as the
measure, the case can be made that because of well-priced short sales and
REO’s, the resale market has shown some rather dramatic improvement of late.
The resale market is moving homes at a better rate than it has for many
months. It is moving those homes that represent the best values (and those
may indeed be the short sales and REO’s), but that is what markets do in all
but the very best of times. RL Brown continues to expect price declines in
the resale market due primarily to competition between REO and “normal
seller” properties. In RL Brown’s view, the trend is better, but
certainly not “great.” “Great” won’t come for some time. When it does, it
will be at a more subdued level than we have recently been accustomed to.
Brown believes the market is in much better condition than it was just a few
months ago, not because velocities have improved that much but because the
industry has adjusted to the reality of the times and most of us have come
to realize that this “recession” will not be what was called by some a
Today’s market varies greatly from neighborhood and from price range and
product type to product type. The market of tomorrow will also be different
from the market of 2005. 7,526 homes or condos were sold in Phoenix this
last month, and that is a really strong performance based upon the national
housing market and economy. 38,237 homes or condos have been sold in Phoenix
in the last 12 months, so this is not a “dead” housing market even though it
is not what we had or what we want for the future. Foreclosures will
continue to be a major market disruptor and will gain much notice in the
national and local press, as well as to be disruptive to our friends and
neighbors and a large damper on consumer confidence. Eventually, once the
nearest term resets are done and the feds have legislative remedies in
place, the dampening effect will tend to subside.
our metro population does indeed grow by the forecast 184,000 people in the
2008-2009 period, some 37,000 homes and apartments will be required just for
those newbies. This will put a large dent in the portion of the inventory
overhang that is priced for these new residents.